The DRC and Rwanda sign Peace Deal in Washington

On Friday, June 27, 2025, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (U.S. State Department) hosted a signing ceremony with the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda to end the hostilities between the two nations in the DRC’s east. Despite the peace deal’s promise, skepticism remains high in the east of the DRC. Prior deals have been reneged upon, the US has been accused of being transactional, and the main rebel group, the March 23 movement (M23) has effectively created a “state-within-a-state" in the areas it controls.

Background

The DRC is the second-largest country in Central Africa by land area. The country features a mix of tropical rainforest in its western and central regions, an upland plateau in the southern Katanga region, and a chain of mountains that belongs to the East African Rift System in its east. As the crow flies, the distance between the country's core region in Kinshasa and Goma, the capital of the eastern North Kivu province, is around 1500km. The Congo rainforest and fragile state institutions have hampered Kinshasa’s influence over the east.

Rwanda, meanwhile, sits just across the border with both North and South Kivu. Like these two neighboring DRC provinces bordering Lake Kivu, Rwanda is densely populated, beaten out only by Mauritius in terms of population density among African countries. Because of this proximity, Rwanda has had a keen interest in what happens on the other side of its border with the DRC.

This terrain has laid the groundwork for historical conflict. The current conflict traces back to the Congo Wars, which mired the DRC in a catastrophic conflict that saw over 5 million excess deaths; deaths not necessarily combat-related, but still a result of war. The first war broke out a few years after the Rwandan genocide and saw the flight of Zaire’s (as the DRC was known at the time) leader, Mobutu Sese Seko.

In the immediate aftermath of the Rwandan genocide, many extreme Hutu militias poured across the border into the then Zaire. Rwanda considered these militias to be an existential security threat and launched its first incursion into Zaire, sparking the First Congo War. In the decades since, Kigali has sought to eradicate this threat by backing (Reuters)groups such as the M23.

Analysis

The agreement signed (Peace Agreement) in Washington carried with it several key points. Both countries agreed to respect the territorial integrity of each other and the disengagement of non-state armed groups such as M23. Other key provisions include the return of refugees on both sides of the border and a mechanism for joint security cooperation.

There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of the agreement. The M23 was initially formed as a response to the perceived failures of the DRC government to implement an earlier peace deal signed in 2009. Disarming the plethora of other militant groups like the FDLR and the Mai-Mai will also be a formidable challenge for both parties to the agreement to implement.

Specifically, regarding the M23, it is difficult to predict what their next action might be. According to UN experts (Reuters), M23’s command and control is exercised by Rwanda; as long as Rwanda is a party to the peace deal, M23 will be among the militias to be disarmed. On the other hand, M23 has created a “state-within-a-state" in the territory it controls. As such, they may not be willing to give up their weapons or political control. The challenge lies in both disarming the M23 and to make sure its parallel administrative structure can be sufficiently replaced by the DRC government. The illicit extraction of resources under the eyes of M23 fighters likewise highlights the economic factors that have complicated past peace agreements.

The ongoing conflict in the Great Lakes region has had an impact on Rwanda’s neighbors. Both Uganda and Burundi have had, at times, a strained relationship with Kigali. In recent years, however, there have been attempts (Muhumuza) at a bilateral rapprochement with the two neighboring states and Rwanda. Uganda’s military operations in the DRC against the Islamist group ADF have also served to complicate the security landscape of the region.

Critics argue that the American commitment to the DRC is only about access to its enormous resource wealth. At the same time, the US President has attempted to cast himself as a peacemaker, driving his involvement in not just the DRC, but also the 2025 Iran-Israel war and the flare-up in hostilities between India and Pakistan of the same year. Finally, the peace deal in the Congo offers the US the opportunity to increase its influence in regional competition with China.

Without strong enforcement mechanisms, either from the AU, UN, or even the United States, the deal risks falling by the wayside. Ultimately, all parties involved view it as in their interests to abide by the peace deal. Whether or not the agreement holds, however, remains uncertain.

Citations:

ProfilePage, Wed Jun 07 20:54:20 EDT 2023, Muhumuza, R., Wed Jun 07 20:55:05 EDT 2023, & Ssuuna, I. (2022, January 28). Rwanda to reopen its Uganda border, ending a tense standoff. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/africa-rwanda-diplomacy-military-intelligence-uganda-e2339d0a0d0cb6a47e9353ac4c1b7ad5

Reuters. (n.d.). Exclusive: Rwanda exercises command and control over M23 rebels, say UN experts | reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/rwanda-exercises-command-control-over-m23-rebels-say-un-experts-2025-07-02/

U.S. Department of State. (n.d.). PEACE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO AND THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA. U.S. Department of State. https://www.state.gov/peace-agreement-between-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-and-the-republic-of-rwanda/

US State Department. (n.d.). Secretary Rubio hosts a Democratic Republic of the Congo-Rwanda Peace Agreement signing ceremony. YouTube.